The J Curve Insider: The Credit Gap Sitting on Top of 30% of Brazil’s GDP

Brazil’s agribusiness sector powers ~30% of the country’s GDP—but for decades, its credit needs were met by a single player: Banco do Brasil. When subsidies collapsed, a massive financing vacuum opened up across the rural economy.

And into that gap stepped Agrolend.

Today, I sit down with Alan Glezer, co-founder and CFO, to unpack how Agrolend became Brazil’s leading full-stack digital bank for agriculture—why they went after a full banking license instead of building on borrowed rails, how they underwrite a fragmented ecosystem with system-level guarantees, and what it really takes to scale credit in a high-friction, high-impact market.

Let’s get into it.

WE’RE A BANK. PERIOD

Olga Maslikhova: Let’s start at the top. Are you an agritech with a fintech layer on top—or a vertical bank built for agribusiness?

Alan Glezer: We’re a digital bank. Full stop. We have a banking license, we raise time deposits guaranteed by the equivalent of the FDIC in Brazil, and we operate a balance sheet lending model. That gives us the lowest funding cost in our category—15% below the risk-free rate. If you can’t raise insured time deposits, you’re not a bank. You’re a fintech with expensive capital.

OM: How did you pull that off—getting the license, building a bank, what does it actually take?

AG:  It’s hard. You need at least $5–7 million just to apply. That money sits locked in the Central Bank as a guarantee. Most startups couldn’t do it because they were burning cash. Then you need to recruit qualified executives approved by the regulator. And finally, the reporting requirements are insane—you need tech, compliance, and discipline to operate at this level. But if you do it right, the payoff is massive.

THE CREDIT GAP SITTING ON TOP OF 30% OF BRAZIL’S GDP

OM: Why bet on agribusiness?

AG:  In Brazil, agribusiness accounts for over 30% of GDP. It’s the country’s growth engine—and it was historically funded by subsidized loans from Banco do Brasil. That model broke down in 2016–17 when the government couldn’t keep up with the subsidies.  Brazil is also the most scalable agricultural economy in the world—massive land, great soil, growing global demand. So now you have a capital-hungry sector, global demand for expansion—and a massive credit gap.

OM: And globally?

AG: Brazil is already the largest exporter of soybeans. With U.S.–China trade tensions and tariffs, China is looking to Brazil for more imports. The U.S. is already at max agricultural capacity. Brazil still has room to grow. We have land, climate, and production upside. We just need capital to unlock it.

THE FIVE PILLARS OF A PROFITABLE LENDING BUSINESS 

OM: What do fintechs get wrong about credit?

AG: They think the edge is in lending. It’s not. The edge is in funding. If your capital is expensive, you’re always chasing margin. The best credit model in the world won’t save you if your borrow cost is 22%. Our philosophy: optimize borrowing first, then scale lending.

OM: What’s your framework for building a profitable lending business?

AG: Five pillars:

1. Low funding cost: most lenders obsess over credit models. That’s a mistake. The real leverage is in your cost of capital.

2. Lean operating model: we operate like a bootstrapped company, even with venture backing. No office renovations. No bloated headcount. No vanity hires. We’ve scaled the business with just 65 people. Every real is treated like it’s ours. Profitability isn’t a milestone. It’s a mindset.

3. Depositors diversification: most people underestimate it. We’re not relying on one channel. We distribute through multiple platforms, similar to how Charles Schwab works in the U.S. If one closes, another picks it up. That’s how you create resilience in your funding stack.

4. Conservative leverage: We don’t run on excessive financial leverage. That gives us flexibility when things get volatile—which they always do in agri. We could easily lever up and chase higher returns, but we’d rather preserve the downside and compound consistently. It’s why we’ve maintained strong NPL performance even in rough macro years.

5. Wide spreads: we’re running a 12-point spread. We can absorb risk and still be wildly profitable.

A CREDIT MODEL BUILT FOR RURAL BRAZIL 

OM: So how do you underwrite in a sector where many borrowers lack traditional credit histories?

AG: Most people assume we’re bank-izing unbanked farmers. We’re not. We’re working with farmers who’ve had credit lines with Banco do Brasil. We underwrite the incremental need—based on historical data, central bank records, and credit bureau inputs. On top of that, we use a double guarantee structure: retailers and manufacturers guarantee the loan.

OM: What does that mean for your default rates?

AG: In good years, our NPL is 0.5%. In bad years, it’s around 3.5%. The industry average during bad cycles hits 5–6%. Our statistical model predicted 4% last year—we landed just below. With our spread—we borrow at 12.5% and lend at 22.25%—we can absorb that comfortably.

WHAT AI WON’T DO—AND WHAT IT ABSOLUTELY WILL

OM: Where does AI actually matter in your business?

AG: Most people jump straight to AI in underwriting. We’ll get there—but I don’t think that’s where the real transformation starts.

OM: So what is?

AG: Customer service. Our entire client base operates on WhatsApp. Farmers send us voice notes, not emails. The biggest efficiency unlock is using AI to respond with smart, contextual audio replies. That’s how you scale without sacrificing experience. Nobody wants another app—they want frictionless service in the channels they already use.

OM: Beyond AI, what market or technology shifts will reshape financial services in Brazil?

AG: Open banking will continue to evolve, but Pix has already been a major unlock—especially on the collections side. The next shift is replacing boletos with real-time, intelligent reconciliation. Today, reconciliations are slow, inefficient, and error-prone. That’s going to change fast.

OM: What about embedded finance? Where do you see white space others are missing?

AG: Irrigation. It’s the Achilles’ heel of Brazilian agriculture. We have the land, inputs, and climate—but not the irrigation infrastructure. That’s a huge opportunity. We’d love to finance it, but at today’s interest rates, it’s not feasible. If the macro changes, that’s where we’ll go.

THE MASTER PLAN TO MODERNIZE RURAL FINANCE

OM: Fast forward five years—what does Agrolend look like?

AG: Two tracks. First, we want to be the default bank for agribusiness. If you’re in the sector and you need credit, you come to us. Second, product expansion. We’re already applying to become the first digital lender to offer BNDES CapEx financing. That unlocks long-term loans for irrigation and equipment—critical for boosting productivity.

We’re also eyeing insurance. Today, fewer than 10% of our clients are covered. That’s a huge opportunity. But more than that, I want Agrolend to drive real development in Brazil’s countryside—where agriculture is the only economic engine.

HARD TRUTH ON BRAZIL’S VENTURE LANDSCAPE

OM: You recently closed a $53 million Series C—the largest agtech investment in Brazil for 2024. What did you learn from that process?

AG: It takes way longer than you think. Even after you get a term sheet, the clock doesn’t stop. And the bar is higher now. If you’re not near breakeven—or building toward it—there’s no capital for you. The era of “burn and grow” is over in Brazil. Investors want to see discipline before they believe in your ambition.

BRAZIL VS. INDIA: WHY GLOBAL INVESTORS STILL HESITATE

OM: Why is India attracting global growth capital while Brazil isn’t?

AG: Because India has functioning public markets—and Brazil doesn’t. In India, there’s a clear exit path. Local IPOs work. Liquidity exists. That gives investors confidence to deploy capital across the venture stack—from early to late stage—because they know there’s a viable way out.

In Brazil, the IPO window has been effectively closed for years. That creates a systemic bottleneck. If public markets don’t work, late-stage capital dries up. Without late-stage capital, growth equity firms hold back. And without growth equity, venture funds become more conservative. It’s a domino effect. And it affects everyone—from seed investors to Series C founders.

The irony is that Brazil has some of the strongest macro fundamentals in emerging markets. Resilient companies. Massive internal markets. Structural advantages in agri, energy, and fintech. But until we fix the capital markets side—until exits are real, repeatable, and liquid—we’ll continue to be underpriced and under-allocated.

RAPID FIRE: IN ALAN’S WORDS 

OM: If you had to start Agrolend again—what would you do differently?

AG: I’d launch our second product earlier. We were too cautious. You don’t need five products—but you need more than one.

OM: Founder or investor you’d love to have lunch with?

AG: Warren Buffett. Also Jamie Dimon—the best banker in the world.

OM: One word your team would use to describe your leadership?

AG: Communication.

OM: One rule for meetings?

AG: No laptops. If you’re not fully present, you’re missing everything.

OM: One thing that used to stress you out—but doesn’t anymore?

AG: The destination. I used to worry about where we were going. Now I just make sure we’re moving forward every day.

FINAL TAKEAWAYS

✓ License = leverage. Agrolend didn’t rent infrastructure—they built it. A full banking license unlocked deposit-based funding and long-term cost control.

✓ Execution is your moat. With broken IPOs and limited late-stage capital, your only real hedge is margins and velocity.

✓ Underwrite the network, not just the node. Farmers don’t operate in isolation. Agrolend’s model maps and de-risks the entire ag supply chain.

✓ AI in underwriting is overrated—at least for now. The real transformation in financial services isn’t about scoring risk better. It’s about scaling customer service smarter.

 P.S. If this issue was valuable to you please share it with a founder who needs to hear it. Let’s build LATAM’s next tech leaders—together.

🎙 The J Curve is where LATAM’s boldest founders & investors come to talk real strategy, opportunity and leadership. Follow us for deep dives on the most exciting markets in tech.