The J Curve Insider: Logistics for the TikTok Economy

Brazil's logistics market is massive--worth over $100 billion and growing fast. But under the surface, it's a patchwork of outdated systems, fiscal complexity, and infrastructure gaps that make modern fulfillment a nightmare to scale.

Estoca is changing that.

What started as a back-of-the-napkin idea in 2020 has become one of the most powerful fulfillment platforms in Latin America--processing over 1% of Brazil's e-commerce GMV. Caio Almeida, Estoca's founder and CEO, saw the gap while leading restaurant partnerships at Uber Eats. When long delivery times tanked conversion for popular dishes like poke bowls, Uber fixed it with dark kitchens. Caio thought: why not do the same for e-commerce?

To make it work, he and his team built a new kind of fulfillment platform:

• Asset-light--plugging into underused warehouses instead of building their own

• Verticalized, full-stack, and defensible--centered around a custom-built WMS that became the system of record

• Funded with discipline--raising only what they needed, avoiding the pressure of overcapitalization

That focus is paying off. Today, Estoca:

• Operates 60+ real-time integrations

• Works with brands like New Balance and Fila

• Runs cashflow positive, with 4x growth last year

In this Insider, Caio shares how they built defensibility in an unsexy category--from using legacy infrastructure in new ways to building the backbone software others now rely on. We dive into what's broken in Brazilian logistics, the rise of fulfillment as a growth lever, and why some of the most important fundraising decisions are about what not to do.

Let's get into it.

WHAT'S ACTUALLY BROKEN IN BRAZILIAN LOGISTICS

Olga Maslikhova: Everyone talks about how broken logistics is in Brazil. But what exactly makes the system so fragmented and hard to fix?

Caio Almeida: There are three major issues. First, the fiscal complexity: issuing an invoice in Brazil requires ERP integration with the government's financial system, unlike the U.S., where it's much more straightforward. Second, Brazil is a massive country with poor infrastructure. And third, many logistics operators rely on outdated, freestyle processes with no optimization. That inefficiency multiplies when you add e-commerce's complexity: real-time processing, custom packaging, multiple channels, and fragmented demand.

OM: How big is the logistics opportunity in Brazil?

CA: It's a huge market. The overall freight and logistics industry in Brazil is worth around $105 to $111 billion today, and it's expected to hit $140 billion by the end of the decade. The 3PL segment alone--where we play--is around $30 to $35 billion. On the e-commerce side, Brazil saw about $82 billion in GMV last year, and some categories are growing as fast as 30 to 40%. But the real opportunity lies in penetration--online sales still account for less than 15% of total retail, compared to around 30% in the U.S. and over 50% in China. So the runway ahead is massive.

FULFILLMENT IN THE AGE OF INSTANT COMMERCE

OM: What tailwinds are pushing your business forward?

CA: COVID was the first big push--it forced people to buy online, even those who hadn't before. That broke the initial barrier. Then came convenience. As people got used to fast, reliable delivery, expectations shifted--suddenly two-day shipping became the norm. And now we're seeing a third wave with social commerce. Platforms like TikTok are turning influencers into high-volume sellers overnight. We've had clients 7x their monthly sales just by leaning into that channel. But all of that only works if your fulfillment is built to handle it.

A LESSON FROM POKE BOWLS

OM: What was the spark behind Estoca?

CA: It actually started while I was at Uber Eats. I was leading restaurant partnerships and saw firsthand how much logistics impacted conversion. There was this huge spike in searches for poke bowls, but people weren't ordering--delivery times were too long. So Uber launched dark kitchens to move the product closer to demand, and it worked. That's when it clicked for me: what if we could do the same thing for e-commerce? That was the back-of-the-napkin idea that led to Estoca.

THE FULFILLMENT OS

OM: How has the original vision for Estoca evolved since you started?

CA: In the beginning, our focus was on reducing delivery times--opening multiple warehouses to bring inventory closer to demand. But once we started operating, we realized the real bottleneck wasn't location, it was inefficiency. Sellers were manually printing invoices, downloading shipping labels, and matching them by hand. That's what made us shift. We paused everything else and built our own WMS from scratch. That's what unlocked scale.

Today, it's the backbone of the business. We process hundreds of thousands of orders per month, fully automated, across more than 60 real-time integrations. Our platform now handles the full stack--from order management to transportation and fulfillment. But it's the WMS that gives us our edge--it's where the complexity lives, and where we've built real defensibility.

OM: How does owning the WMS create defensibility?

CA: WMS is sticky. Switching it is like switching your ERP. We have 60+ integrations and real-time routing logic, all optimized to minimize delays and reduce costs. Our customers customize campaigns, SKUs, packaging--all within the system. No one else can offer that flexibility with end-to-end visibility.

THE ASSET-LIGHT PLAYBOOK

OM: You operate fulfillment centers without owning warehouses. How does that model work?

CA: We partner with traditional logistics operators--companies that already serve sectors like supermarkets or pharmacies but aren't set up for e-commerce. They have the physical space, licenses, and labor. We bring the technology, the volume, and the operational know-how. But we never act like a marketplace. We don't list these partners publicly or let customers pick between them. Estoca owns the SLA, the experience, and the accountability end-to-end.

1% OF BRAZIL'S E-COM RUNS THROUGH ESTOCA

OM: How big is Estoca today?

CA: We're in the $20M to $50M revenue range, and we process over 1% of all Brazilian e-commerce GMV. Last year we grew 4x, and we're on track to double again this year.

OM: What's one KPI you obsess over that most people might not expect?

CA: Revenue per employee. It's simple, but it tells you everything about how efficiently you're running the business. We operate in a complex, low-margin space--so being lean isn't optional.

WHAT MADE THE BIG BRANDS SAY YES

OM: You work with brands like New Balance and Fila now. What helped you break into the enterprise segment?

CA: We had to prove it worked. Big brands were used to managing logistics in-house--owning the warehouse, hiring the team, running the whole operation. But when they saw competitors using our model to ship faster and improve customer satisfaction, it changed the perception. They realized they could outsource logistics without losing control--and actually gain speed, flexibility, and better reviews. That's when they started coming to us.

EVERY ORDER GETS ITS OWN AI AGENT

OM: What role does AI play?

CA: We started by looking at predictive use cases, but the real value came from operational execution. Today, instead of one account manager per client, we can have an AI agent monitoring every single order in real time. It flags issues before they happen--delays, SLA risks, anything off. That gives us a higher hit rate on SLAs, fewer surprises, and stronger retention. It's like giving every order its own ops manager.

THE DISCIPLINE OF RAISING JUST ENOUGH

OM: You've raised multiple rounds from VCs. How do you decide what not to do with the capital you raise?

CA: Before we raise, we always ask one thing first: what are we solving for--and how much do we really need?

That helps us avoid the trap of over-raising. There's this default advice in VC: raise as much as you can, at the highest valuation possible. But that kind of abundance creates pressure. You feel like you have to deploy--into new regions, new products, international expansion--whether or not it makes sense.

We've seen peers raise too much and pivot away from their strategy just to justify spend. In one case, a competitor raised for an asset-light model and ended up renting warehouses--turning into the exact opposite of what they'd pitched.

We've always done the opposite. Before raising, we define exactly what we need to execute. That keeps us lean, focused, and efficient. It's how we became cashflow positive, built a truly asset-light model, and scaled without drift.

RAPID FIRE

OM: What's a contrarian bet you made early on that ended up being right?

CA: In 2021, we shut down our SaaS product to focus entirely on fulfillment--it was our main revenue line, but we needed focus. That decision made us more disciplined and efficient. Ironically, the SaaS business turned out to be a strong asset, and we brought it back in 2023. Now, we have a hybrid model where brands run their own warehouses in some states and use our fulfillment in others--all connected through our tech layer.

OM: One founder or operator in Brazil you admire?

CA: Igor Marinelli from Tractian. He's sharp, deeply understands his business, and managed to successfully scale to the U.S.--which few have pulled off. I really admire his pragmatism.

OM: If Estoca could acquire one type of company to accelerate growth, what would it be?

CA: Something that makes the operation more seamless. Possibly a fintech company--to integrate payments more fluidly into the logistics flow.

OM: What's the most valuable business lesson you learned the hard way?

CA: Don't overthink--just do it. Before Estoca, I spent months building features no one needed. Now, we move fast, test early, and let the market be the judge.

OM: One YC lesson that still shapes how you operate today?

CA: Think bigger. YC pushed us to expand our ambition. I came in aiming for the moon--and left thinking in galaxies.

OM: What's one recent mindset shift that changed how you lead?

CA: In the early days, I micromanaged everything--I was deep in every decision, every process. But over time, I realized that the root cause was a lack of clarity. Once we defined the right KPIs, it changed how I operated. I could finally step back and lead through direction and values, not constant oversight.

OM: Worst advice you've received as a founder?

CA: In 2021, someone told me to burn cash aggressively to test more ideas--and promised they'd re-fund us later. Six months on, the market dried up. That same person ghosted us. Thank God I didn't follow that advice.

OM: One thing you wish you'd done differently--team or fundraising-wise?

CA: I'd update investors more consistently. Not just every five months, but with regular touchpoints. It builds trust and makes follow-on conversations smoother.

OM: One book every founder should read?

CA: High Output Management by Andy Grove. It teaches you to be data-driven and disciplined from day one--which most founders only figure out later.

OM: Favorite restaurant in São Paulo?

CA: There's a tiny omakase spot in Pinheiros called Kai Sushi--run by a Japanese chef and totally under-the-radar. It's my go‑to.

TAKEAWAYS

✓ Build the system they can't leave. Estoca's WMS became the backbone of fulfillment for clients--so integrated that switching felt like replacing an ERP.

✓ Big brands buy results. Estoca cracked into top-tier accounts by outperforming the competition. Faster delivery and better reviews spoke louder than any sales narrative.

✓ Plug into what already works. Estoca scaled fast by plugging into underused infrastructure--adding tech and volume to turn legacy operators into e-commerce-ready hubs.

✓ Raise what you need, not what you can. Excess cash creates pressure to chase growth before you're ready.

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