The J Curve Insider: If You’re Not Using AI, What Are You Even Building

Latin America’s venture ecosystem has been through it all — the boom of 2021, the crash that followed, and now, a reset. Capital is tighter, exits are rare, and the bar for what gets funded is higher than ever.

At Web Summit Rio, I sat down with Mike Packer, Partner at QED Investors — the iconic FinTech firm founded by Frank Rotman and Nigel Morris, creators of Capital One and early believers in data-driven credit. QED made its first LATAM bet over a decade ago with Nubank, now the most valuable digital bank in the world.

We talked about why the real funding gap in LATAM has shifted to growth — especially at Series B+ — and how the best founders are navigating this moment with discipline, clarity, and speed. Mike laid out what makes a company fundable in 2025, why vertical SaaS no longer cuts it without embedded AI, and how real adoption is already happening across QED’s portfolio — from voice agents to AI-generated code. We also dug into the IPO question, and what it actually takes to build a company that can go the distance, even with the exit window still shut.

Let’s get into it.

WE TREATED LATAM LIKE OUR INTERNAL STARTUP

Olga Maslikhova: QED started investing in LATAM long before it was mainstream. What drew you in?
Mike Packer: It started with Nubank in 2014. That deal opened up a network that kept pulling us back. Over time, we built conviction that the market was big enough and the founder quality strong enough to justify a dedicated strategy. We treated LATAM like our internal startup — with its own goals, team, and iterative roadmap.

OM: How has QED’s approach changed over the years?
MP: When we started, we wrote smaller checks — mostly Series A and seed just to learn the terrain. Today, we’re writing $20–30M lead checks and taking more ownership because we’ve seen what’s possible in the region.

Especially now — companies that survived the last three years are more resilient, disciplined, and efficient. They’ve proven their models, they’ve been stress-tested — and yet, there’s still a gap when it comes to strategic capital at the Series B+ stage. That’s where we see real upside.

WHAT 2021 GOT WRONG — AND WHAT IT GOT RIGHT

OM: Let’s rewind back to 2021. Capital was cheap, deals were happening at wild valuations — even by Silicon Valley standards. What are the biggest lessons QED took from that cycle?
MP: The obvious lessons are true: you can’t shortcut fundamentals. You can’t value companies based on momentum alone. But I’ll say this — 2021 wasn’t a lost cause. For LATAM, it was net positive.

Yes, it brought overfunding and heady deals. But it also gave founders a rare capital buffer. Many of them are still deploying that cash today. More importantly, they’ve emerged tougher and smarter. The capital cycle in LATAM is tough — and that injection gave founders room to build and prove themselves.

A NEW MACRO CYCLE — AND LATAM’S POSITION IN IT

OM: We’re in a very different world now: high rates, capital slowdown, geopolitical tension. How does that shape your view on LATAM?
MP: It’s definitely a time for caution. But disruption also creates opportunity. Brazil and Mexico, in particular, are in a strong position — especially Brazil, which has managed to remain neutral while maintaining deep trade ties with both the U.S. and China.

That kind of positioning could open doors, whether it’s in supply chains, manufacturing, or financial infrastructure. From our side, we haven’t dramatically changed strategy — but we’re watching closely. LATAM still has massive potential and serious founder talent.

THE FULL STACK APPROACH

OM: If we zoom out and think about what comes next — where do you see the biggest venture-scale opportunities in LATAM?
MP: We’re fintech-first, so that lens guides us. But a few areas are front of mind:

Payments continues to see innovation cycles. Pix has created massive momentum in Brazil, and we think real-time payments will expand across the region.

Stablecoins are starting to show up in real-world transactions. That opens doors for cross-border B2B and consumer use cases.

Vertical platforms — especially ones that lead with fintech — are becoming more investable. Capim is a great example: payments, lending, and now software — all tailored to the same customer base.

OM: Unpack vertical platforms for me. What makes them scalable in a market like Brazil?
MP: Traditional SaaS — things like billing, dashboards, CRMs — just isn’t enough. Especially in Brazil, where the infrastructure gaps are deeper and customers need more than software to run their businesses.

But if you take a vertical — say, dental clinics — and build in not just the software, but also the financial rails like payments and lending, you start solving the real operational problems. And now, when you layer AI on top of that — to drive automation, recommendations, or efficiency — that’s when it becomes a true platform. That’s when the opportunity becomes venture-backable.

WHERE AI IS ACTUALLY MOVING THE NEEDLE

OM: Where are you seeing real, measurable applications of AI across your portfolio?
MP: Three areas stand out:

Customer Interaction — We’re seeing AI power both support and sales agents, including voice. What’s remarkable is the speed of implementation. One company stood up an AI voice agent in just two days.

Engineering Output — In one portfolio company, 25% of their code is already written by AI. It’s not replacing engineers, but it’s meaningfully boosting output and velocity — allowing teams to move faster without needing to scale headcount at the same pace.

Sales Ops + CRM — This is another area where automation is kicking in. From lead scoring to funnel management and pipeline automation, AI is helping teams iterate faster, shorten sales cycles, and make more data-driven decisions on the fly.

It’s still early, sure — but we’re past the experimentation phase. These aren’t pilots or isolated experiments. In many cases, AI is now embedded into the core operations of the business.

THE EXIT QUESTION: M&A CEILING AND IPO HOPE

OM: Let’s talk exits. LATAM’s average M&A is still in the $200–300 million range — not enough for traditional VC math. Do you still believe IPOs are on the table?
MP: They have to be. And I think they are. We’re finally seeing companies with real scale — $300M+ in revenue, strong fundamentals, and clear profitability paths. But there’s a challenge: first-mover risk. Everyone’s waiting for someone else to test the public markets first.

From our side, we underwrite for IPO potential. That doesn’t mean predicting who’s going public next — it means backing companies that could, if they continue executing with discipline. The bar is high, but we’re seeing teams that are getting there.

WATCH OR LISTEN TO THE J CURVE EPISODE WITH MIKE ON SPOTIFY:

RAPID FIRE

OM: Let’s close it out with a few rapid-fire ones — short and sweet. You’ve backed companies like Nubank and Creditas. What’s the common denominator in breakout founders here?
MP: Speed and resilience.

OM: What’s a common piece of VC advice you hear that you think is wrong?
MP: Growth at all costs — especially in FinTech.

OM: If your team or founders had to describe your leadership in one word?
MP: Helpful.

OM: If you could have dinner with any 3 people, dead or alive?
MP: Jesus, Martin Luther King Jr., George Washington.

OM: Most inspiring book?
MP: Endurance — it’s the Shackleton story. Pure founder energy.

THE TAKEAWAYS

→ Treat new markets like internal startups. Start small, build conviction, iterate with purpose — long-term strategies require long-term structure.

→ The post-2021 reset was painful — and productive. Companies that survived are leaner, more disciplined, and often operating from a position of strength.

→ Series B is where resilience lives. It’s also where capital often disappears. That’s a structural gap — and a strategic opportunity.

→ AI is already operational. From voice agents to engineering output to CRM automation — it’s no longer experimental. It’s infrastructure.

 P.S. If this issue was valuable to you please share it with a founder who needs to hear it. Let’s build LATAM’s next tech leaders—together.

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