The J Curve Insider: How Smart Founders Are Winning Consumer

♢ Featuring: Michele Levy, Founder and CEO of Melissa Shoes USA and Costa Brazil

♢ Interviewed by: yours truly ♡

Consumer is brutal right now—rising CAC, changing shopping behavior, and a post-ZIRP reality where scale-at-all-costs no longer works. On a brighter side: 70% of US GDP is still consumer spending, loyalty programs are printing cash, and new categories—social commerce and AI-driven personalization—are reshaping how people shop, while longevity and wellness are emerging as the next trillion-dollar consumer frontier. To break it all down, I sat down with Michele Levy, the operator and investor who scaled Melissa Shoes USA into a cult brand and now backs some of the most exciting consumer startups. She’s got strong opinions on why DTC-only brands are dead, how the best founders are turning loyalty into a cash machine, and why consumer tech isn’t just about software anymore—it’s about survival in a market where efficiency, personalization, and omni-channel dominance define the winners. Let’s get into it.

CONSUMER IS 70% OF GDP. WHY ARE INVESTORS SLEEPING ON IT?

Olga Maslikhova: Michele, consumer businesses go in and out of favor with investors. Right now, everyone is running toward fintech and B2B. But you’ve been consistently bullish on consumer. What keeps you excited?
Michele Levy: People love to say consumer is hard. But let’s look at the facts. In the U.S., consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP. In developed economies, that’s the biggest chunk of the economy by far. And here’s the thing—people will never stop consuming. They might cut back on software, delay buying a new phone, but they’ll always need food, clothing, and basic essentials. The trick is figuring out how to make the mundane exciting.

I don’t invest in Gucci-Pucci-Fiorucci. I invest in making the everyday better.

• Why do people buy $500 Apple headphones when a $100 pair has the same specs? Because of emotional connection.

• Why do people keep coming back to Nike when there are cheaper sneakers? Because of brand affinity.

Consumer brands win on emotion, not spreadsheets. If you can tap into that, you have a recurring revenue engine.

LOYALTY IS THE #1 METRIC FOUNDERS IGNORE.

OM: So many consumer brands hit a wall at $10M ARR and can't break through. Why?
ML: They obsess over customer acquisition but completely neglect customer retention. I built Melissa Shoes’ loyalty program to 68% of total sales. That’s recurring revenue, not one-time hype. Most brands don’t realize that acquiring a new customer is 5-7x more expensive than keeping an existing one.

Here’s what worked for us:

✓ Make customers feel like insiders because CAC is rising. Our loyalty members got premium status, early drops, and product input. Remember, retention is the new acquisition.

✓ Charge for loyalty. We charged $50 for membership—and people still joined in droves. Why? People don’t value free.

✓ Use data to personalize everything. If a customer only buys sneakers, don’t email them about sandals. Segmentation drives conversions.

If you don’t own your customer outside of Instagram and Google, you’re just renting them.

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TECH IS EATING RETAIL—HERE’S WHERE IT’S GOING NEXT.

OM: What’s the most underrated tech shift in consumer?
ML: Automation is killing inefficiencies. I built my first company with 30 people. Today, I could run it with four using AI-driven CRM, order management, and demand planning.

Six consumer tech trends to watch right now:

1. AI-powered loyalty – personalization at scale. If you’re still doing generic marketing, you’re losing.

2. Live commerce & video shopping – China figured this out years ago. The West is finally catching up.

3. On-demand manufacturing – no more dead inventory. The best brands will only make what sells.

4. B2B2C models win – DTC is expensive. Smart brands combine wholesale, retail, and digital. In today’s world, multichannel strategy is critical.

5. Conversational AI + commerce is evolving – brands are integrating AI agents that manage subscriptions, reorders, and personalized shopping.

6. AI-driven demand forecasting – this will be the biggest profit unlock for consumer brands in the next 5 years.

THINK GLOBAL. ACT LOCAL.

OM: What’s the biggest mistake consumer founders make when expanding globally?
ML: They translate their website and think that’s localization.

✗ What doesn’t work:

• Copy-pasting your native strategy into a new market.

• Assuming your product-market fit translates 1:1.

✓ What works:

• Find a local truth-teller. Someone who will tell you skinny jeans don’t sell here before you waste millions.

• Test through wholesale first. Direct-to-consumer is expensive—get validation through local retail first.

• Start with niche partnerships. Melissa started with 50 boutiques before going mass-market.

• Adapt your messaging, not just your language. What works in Brazil won’t necessarily work in the U.S.

SHEIN VS. ZARA: THE FASTEST FASHION.

OM: Shein has completely disrupted fast fashion. What’s their secret?
ML: Speed, innovation, price. Zara disrupted retail because they could copy a runway look and get it in stores in 8 days. Shein does it in real-time. Their supply chain is powered by AI-driven inventory management, predictive demand, and ruthless cost efficiency. Unlike Zara, which forecasts trends and commits to large orders months in advance, Shein places small initial orders—often as few as 100 pieces—and scales production based on real-time demand.

Shein is forcing H&M and Zara to reposition as “affordable luxury” just to survive. The mid-market fashion brands are the ones getting squeezed.

THE NEXT BILLION DOLLAR CONSUMER PLAYS.

OM: So where would you build today?
ML: Longevity is exploding, and we’re still in the early innings. The biggest opportunities are in precision health, metabolic optimization, and untapped global markets. If I were launching a consumer company today, here’s where I’d go:

♢ Precision health & diagnostics. AI-driven longevity labs, microbiome testing, and metabolic optimization are unlocking hyper-personalized health strategies—a massive shift from the one-size-fits-all approach of the past.

♢ Menopause as the next DTC gold rush. Women spend one-third of their lives in menopause, yet the industry has ignored them. From HRT innovations to menopause-focused skincare, nutrition, and wellness solutions, the brands that get this right will dominate.

♢ Longevity as a brand identity. The next Nike, Patagonia, or Peloton won’t be about fitness—it’ll be about performance aging, recovery, and proactive health. People aren’t just working out; they are optimizing their bodies for the long run.

♢ Post-Ozempic consumer shifts. Weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are redefining obesity and metabolic health, and this will create an entire ecosystem of lifestyle brands catering to post-GLP-1 consumers—from nutritional support to fitness and longevity supplements.

♢ Latin America is wide open. The U.S. longevity space is already competitive, but LatAm is still a blank slate. There’s massive white space for tele-health, AI-driven diagnostics, and longevity-focused brands that cater to emerging economies.

OM: What’s driving the longevity boom?
ML: The science is advancing, but consumer behavior is the real driver. People aren’t just hoping to live longer—they’re actively investing in staying healthier, more active, and higher performing for longer. But also:

• Aging population = bigger demand. By 2030, 1 in 6 people worldwide will be over 6 (WHO). By 2050, 1.5 billion people will be over 65, making this the fastest-growing consumer segment—yet most brands are still obsessed with Gen Z. The longevity economy is projected to reach $27 trillion by 2050 (AARP). Mind-blowing.

• Gut health & microbiome awareness. Five years ago, nobody talked about the microbiome. Today, it’s one of the biggest wellness trends. 70% of the immune system is in the gut, and consumers are waking up to the connection between gut health, metabolism, brain function, and aging.

• Menopause is finally mainstream. Today, women spend 1/3 of their lives in menopause, yet historically, less than 5% of healthcare R&D focused on women’s aging. Now, startups are filling the gap —HRT innovation, menopause-focused skincare, and nutrition solutions are all seeing a surge in demand.

• Weight loss & metabolic health. The global GLP-1 drug market (Ozempic, Wegovy) will reach $100 billion by 2030 (Morgan Stanley). These drugs are not just about diabetes—they’re redefining obesity, metabolic function and longevity strategies. Expect an explosion of complementary consumer products in metabolic health, post-Ozempic lifestyle support, and long-term weight management.

• Stem cell & regenerative medicine. Once reserved for the ultra-wealthy, stem cell therapy, longevity supplements, and cellular rejuvenation are moving into mainstream consumer health. This space will see massive growth in the next decade.

OM: What’s the single biggest misconception about this market?
ML: That it’s only for the ultra-wealthy. That’s total BS.

Consumers want to invest in their health—they just need clear, accessible solutions.

• Longevity isn’t just about lifespan—it’s about healthspan. People don’t just want to live longer, they want to stay strong, sharp, and active for as long as possible.

• The next great consumer brands won’t just sell products. They’ll build community, content, and commerce around longevity, helping people navigate aging with technology.

This is where deep tech meets consumer. The only question is who’s smart enough to get in early.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

The playbook for consumer success:

✓ Retention > CAC – The brands that master loyalty & repeat purchases will dominate.

✓ Tech is no longer optional – Automate everything that doesn’t need human input.

✓ Community beats advertising – You need brand evangelists, not just customers.

✓ Longevity & health are the next frontier – This is THE consumer megatrend of the next decade.

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